It is starting to feel a bit more like the holiday season. A bit. At last we have a high-concept film with a Christmas theme aimed at the masses, a couple well-known stars headlining with an idea aimed at children but targeting slightly older moviegoers with action. That does not mean we have our first holiday blockbuster on our hands. In fact, Amazon’s foray with MGM into the movie business is not going to go as well as the packages they will be delivering to spread Christmas cheer, because Red One is down indeed.
King of the Crop: Red One Debuts in First, but Faces Uphill Battle
So the latest collaboration between Jake Kasdan and Dwayne Johnson (not to mention screenwriters who have worked on many films for Johnson and even co-star Chris Evans) is not a hit with critics. Move on from that unpleasantness and Amazon is still left with an opening that is the 18th best of 2024 to date (barely ahead of John Krasinski’s If with $33.7 million if the estimates hold), but just barely in the top 10 of Dwayne Johnson’s career as a headliner. The infamous Black Adam just happens to be No. 1 and the Jumanji films are his toppers, but Red One’s $34 million edged out the pandemic-era release of Jungle Cruise, which earned just a hair over $30 million.
Maybe audiences thought Red One was actually going to be streaming on Amazon Prime as it was originally planned, but this is an Apple-level “What were they thinking?” kind of budget in search of a global payday. Amazon and MGM reportedly spent $200-$250 million on Red One, just as Netflix doled out $200 million for Red Notice and The Gray Man. At least Red One was released in theaters. Unless somehow audiences don’t flock away from this to Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2 in the next two weeks, Red One’s final domestic gross could join a particular naughty list of films with a budget that high that failed to gross $100 million.
Only two films to date have opened higher than Red One in the month of November and failed to reach that mark, and they were Dumb and Dumber To ($36.1 million / $86.1 million) and last year’s The Marvels ($46.1 million / $84.4 million). The next films on that list are Immortals ($32.2 million / $83.5 million) and The SpongeBob Squarepants Movie ($32.0 million / $85.4 million). An unlucky 13 currently reside on that $200+ million budget/less than $100 million gross list, two of which were caught in the pandemic (Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984) while five of the other 11 have been released in the last 13 months (The Marvels, Argylle, Napoleon, Wish, and Killers of the Flower Moon). Red One is making a bit of it back (again, a bit) thanks to international audiences with another $50 million since its release last week. But this is overall looking like a big lump of coal for Amazon.
The Top 10 and Beyond: Venom Drops to Second but Eyes Final Haul of $500 Million
Red One’s No. 1 finish meant that Venom: The Last Dance was finally knocked off its extended perch after three weeks. Down to second with $7.3 million, Sony’s release is now at $127.6 million. The weekend is behind the first sequel, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which had a $9.4 million fourth weekend and is approximately $65 million ahead of its 24-day pace. However, it is about $6 million off the pace of No Time To Die, which had a $7.75 million fourth outing, so many signs are pointing to a final domestic landing in the $155-160 million range. Worldwide the film is over $436 million and eyeing a shot at half-a-billion. Another $30 million domestic may be just what it needs to put it over the top.
Third and fourth place was another close battle between last week’s openers. When the dust settled last week, Heretic ultimately won, but the script was flipped as The Best Christmas Pageant Ever held on with $5.4 million. That brings the Lionsgate release up to $19.9 million. Heretic was not far behind with $5.1 million, and the A24 release is still a nudge over Pageant overall with $20.4 million. Both releases reportedly cost in the vicinity of $10 million each and are headed into profit territory.
In the top five for its eighth straight week, Chris Sanders’ The Wild Robot continues to add to its totals. Its $4.3 million this week brings it to $137.7 million and over $308 million worldwide. There is another impressive number that has the film climbing another chart, though: the ol’ multiple. Measured from its opening weekend to its ultimate total, The Wild Robot is now eighth on the year among initial wide releases of over 1,000 theaters with a multiple of 3.84. And while it continues to climb, it has the following films in front of it: Thelma (3.89), Reagan (3.92), The Beekeeper (3.99), Inside Out 2 (4.23), The Forge (4.34), Despicable Me 4 (4.81), and The Substance (5.00). The animated film, which is one of the favorites to take home the Oscar this year, may not climb to the top of the chart, but it will find itself in the top five and possibly even the top three, barring another big word-of-mouth success over the holiday season where those numbers do tend to be high, given Christmas vacation.
Smile 2 is not exactly Christmas material, but it continues to draw crowds and up that profit margin for Paramount. Its $2.9 million in its fifth weekend gives it a total of $65.6 million. It is not far from hitting the magical three multiple itself, once it gets to $70 million. It is over $130 million worldwide, making the numbers ultimately around $30 million and $70 million less than the original, but with $28 million, that is still good enough to make it one of the 20 most profitable films of the year to date.
Focus is about to have its highest-grossing film since the spring of The Northman and Downton Abbey: A New Era back in 2022. Edward Berger’s Conclave added $2.8 million to its total this week. The papal thriller has had drops of 23.7%, 18.1%, and now 31% as it has expanded its run a little week to week. After an initial start of 1,753 theaters, the film is now in 2,377 and is enjoying the kind of adult-level attendance that can often mean good news for awards season as well.
Speaking of awards season, Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain expanded this week into 1,185 theaters after two weeks of solid attendance in limited release. This weekend with $2.3 million, the numbers are most reminiscent of The Peanut Butter Falcon from August 2019. That film started in 17 theaters ($204,793), moved into 49 the next week ($287,712), and then went wide to 996 theaters in weekend three and made $2.97 million. Two solid weeks of per-theater averages in five digits is now down to $1,940. Falcon continued to expand and made several millions in that time on its way to over $20 million. A Real Pain is already below Falcon’s third week average ($2,986). It’s an awards season player so it could still pick up some interest and stretch, but we’ll see if this isn’t another failed platform release that couldn’t get to $20 million.
Sean Baker’s Anora added 396 theaters this weekend to bring its total up to 1,500 and it grossed $1.84 million. The film now stands at $10.5 million despite its per-theater average going down to $1,226 in its fifth weekend of release. Consider that Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans was down to a $1,205 PTA in its fifth weekend, grossing $1.17 million in 973 theaters. It had made just $7.32 million in its first 31 days and ultimately finished with $17.3 million. Even a Steven Spielberg film opening in limited release couldn’t find an audience for a $20 million gross. Awards season will begin kicking into gear in a few weeks with Mikey Madison likely to start garnering honors. Heidi Gardner even played Madison (as her Anora character) auditioning for Wicked on this weekend’s Saturday Night Live, so perhaps Anora could still drift its way towards that limited release milestone.
A24’s limited release of We Live In Time did manage to pay off in that respect. Last weekend, it passed $20 million, and with $1.13 million this weekend, it has made $23.9 million to date and will pass $25 million. Spielberg’s one-time protégé, Robert Zemeckis, saw his latest film, Here, lose over 1,000 theaters in weekend three, and it grossed $865,000 for a total of $11.6 million. Janus Films’ release of Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light in three theaters garnered it $51,000 for a PTA of $17,000. It will expand further next week in major markets. Here was a surprise, though: The love-through-time Past Lives-esque Filipino romance Hello, Love, Again with Kathryn Bernardo and Alden Richards broke into the top 10 with $2.32 million from just 248 theaters. That is a solid $9,379 PTA, better than even Red One’s $8,450 and second only to All We Imagine as Light this week.
On the Vine: Everyone’s Ready to Get Glicked
Everyone is already trying to put the Barbenheimer stamp on next weekend. Just be careful how you combine Gladiator II and Wicked. Yes, the longtime Broadway sensation finally makes it to the big screen, giving itself the Dune treatment by advertising itself as Wicked rather than Wicked: Part One, which it is in all of its 160-minute glory, with Part Two slated to open next November. It will go up against Ridley Scott’s 24-years-in-the-making Gladiator II, the sequel to his Best Picture-winning film from 2000. Scott’s film has already grossed $87 million at the international box office, and both are expected to make quite a splash at the box office and into Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday season.
Full List of Box Office Results: November 15-17, 2024
-
33%
90%
Red One
(2024)
– $32.1 million ($32.1 million total)
-
41%
81%
Venom: The Last Dance
(2024)
– $7.3 million ($127.5 million total)
-
91%
97%
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
(2024)
– $5.2 million ($19.8 million total)
-
91%
77%
Heretic
(2024)
– $5.1 million ($20.4 million total)
-
98%
98%
The Wild Robot
(2024)
– $4.2 million ($137.6 million total)
-
85%
81%
Smile 2
(2024)
– $2.9 million ($65.6 million total)
-
92%
85%
Conclave
(2024)
– $2.8 million ($26.5 million total)
-
– –
96%
Hello, Love, Again
(2024)
– $2.32 million ($2.32 million total)
-
96%
79%
A Real Pain
(2024)
– $2.22 million ($2.96 million total)
-
97%
90%
Anora
(2024)
– $1.76 million ($10.42 million total)
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Amazon Studios
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