(Photo by ©Warner Bros. Pictures)
The Golden Globes will be handed out on Sunday, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association honoring 2023’s best film and TV — according to them, anyway. Though there have been many changes and many a controversy with HFPA, the Globes are back in spite of the odds and, despite their own best efforts, more relevant than ever.
This newly assembled Hollywood Foreign Press, which is considerably more diverse, has similar, albeit slightly differing, tastes, leaning more heavily than ever on foreign language titles with more than a few surprise noms. The group, which has long favored the work of Jennifer Lawrence, Rosamund Pike, and Jodie Foster, awarded all three of them with surprising, though not unthinkable, nominations. Things that broke with tradition were first-time filmmaker Celine Song‘s strong showing with Past Lives and not one but two women being nominated in the Best Director category — a clear departure from the previous group’s sentiment.
(Photo by Jon Pack/©A24)
Greta Gerwig, who chastised the group a few years ago for its snub of her Best Director efforts in Little Women, was awarded a nod this time around, as well as for Best Screenplay and Best Comedy, earning a record-breaking nine nominations for her pink-soaked feminist odyssey. This Sunday, most assume that Barbie again will reign supreme with the most wins, but any head-to-head matchups between Barbie and Oppenheimer will have to wait for the Oscars, as both are relegated to separate categories.
Looking more deeply at the nominations and sentiments, we feel more confident about picking the eventual winners this time. The voting body of 300 is composed primarily of programmers and seasoned journalists, meaning that although we can expect some surprise wins, especially in the television categories, we think some tried and true favorites and front runners will emerge that should remain a consistent trend throughout the season.
Indeed, this year’s Golden Globe nominations are going to be noteworthy not only because of their primetime placement at the beginning of the year but moreover for the fact that they will be the first contest to decide many head-to-head matchups that we think will be mirrored by the Oscar nominations coming later this month.
(Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
This weekend, we will get to see who will prevail in the three-way contest between Ryan “I’m Kenough” Gosling, Mr. “Don’t Just Call Him Iron Man” Robert Downey Jr., and the incredible, almost-played-by-Oscar Issac turn of Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Jokes aside, these three men are leading the way in the supporting actor conversation, and it’s truly anyone’s game. Whoever the Golden Globes select might be the one who rides that momentum through the Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, BAFTAs, and onto the Oscar stage in March.
However, the same cannot be said about the first contest between Margot Robbie and Emma Stone in the Best Comedy Actress category and the dramatic battle between Greta Lee and Lily Gladstone. Though Gladstone is the current odds-on favorite overall, we have yet to see how she’ll fare in more competitive contests, when the performance often weighs less than who the most likable is in these intimate tastemakers leading up to each ceremony.
This will also be the first contest to decide what our best animated film of 2023 will be. Pixar’s long dominance in the category will falter this year as the competition of the Spider-Man sequel and Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is just too steep to surmount.
The biggest drama will play out in the top categories. Oppenheimer vs. Killers in the Flower Moon on the drama side, paired with the Poor Things vs. Barbie contests on the comedy side, will likely signal our two biggest Best Picture threats. It is an unenviable task to try and pick exactly which will win this early. Killers of the Flower Moon is a much-heralded American epic that proves that Martin Scorsese is at the top of his craft yet again. Still, the B words — in this case, bomb, billions, and bombastic direction — whichever you choose, may be the ones to win out.
(Photo by ©Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was not just part of one of the most significant cinema movements over the summer, it also lives in the hearts of many voters within the Hollywood Foreign Press and other organizations. Its dominance thus far on our Awards Leaderboard tells that truth, if nothing else. For Poor Things and Barbie, two films that can count on their critics as often as their fans, it likely comes down to who boasts more of the latter. Barbie has a clear advantage, but with a brand new group, who’s to say if that holds?
If you’re going to be viewing the Golden Globes and want to beat your buddies on a ballot, we’ve got you covered with our choices for who’s likely to win on the big night (and those who we feel truly deserve to win). Our Awards expert Jacqueline Coley, considers everything from industry buzz and the tastes and historical leanings of the HFPA to our Tomatometer and Audience Scores to read the tea leaves and place her bets. How right will she be? Bookmark this page for Sunday night and find out.
Check out our picks for the Golden Globes winners, and let us know who you think will be a winner in the comments.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
(Photo by Universal)
What will win?
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
What should win?
Oppenheimer. Christopher Nolan announcing he’s shooting his next film on an iPhone is the only thing that would shock us more.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
(Photo by Warner Bros)
What will win?
88%
Barbie
(2023)
What should win?
The film that follows a beautiful “born yesterday” woman surrounded by controlling and mercurial men trying to win her affection, only for the woman to have a crisis of self and head out on an adventure with a foppish rogue. On her adventures, she meets wise and sometimes opportunistic people who try subjugating her to counterbalance their inadequacies or fears. This leads to a climactic third act where she returns home after discovering who she is and what it truly means to be a woman. And the best version of that tale is Poor Things. Ironically, Barbie will win.
Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama
(Photo by Apple/Paramount)
Who will win?
Lily Gladstone
93%
Killers of the Flower Moon
(2023)
Who should win?
Greta Lee. Greta Lee was heartbreaking, authentic, romantic, and hilarious in two languages, not to mention across several decades. It is the cruelest example of poor luck that she just so happens to be competing in one of the most challenging Best Actress categories in recent years. Well, maybe outside of the cruel luck that befell her character in Past Lives, but it is a close contest.
Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
(Photo by Universal Pictures)
Who will win?
Cillian Murphy
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
Who should win?
Bradley Cooper spent six years working on six minutes of conducting in Maestro, and many would argue that he deserves to win for that herculean effort alone. However, Cillian Murphy made arguably the most complicated and enigmatic man in modern history feel wholly lived in and authentic — the fact it took six months to realize said performance is a feature, not a bug.
Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
(Photo by Searchlight Pictures)
Who will win?
Emma Stone
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
Who should win?
Natalie Portman gave one of her Best Performances of the year in May December, but rewarding that as a comedy is just a bridge too far for us… or most voters.
Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
(Photo by Seacia Pavao/©Focus Features)
Who will win?
Paul Giamatti
96%
The Holdovers
(2023)
Who should win?
Jeffrey Wright, and it is slightly poetic that Wright’s likable grump Thelonious “Monk” would lose to the man who made the likable curmudgeon into a 3-decades-long career.
Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture
(Photo by Seacia Pavao/©Focus Features)
Who will win?
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
96%
The Holdovers
(2023)
Who should win?
This is a complicated choice. Danielle Brooks and Rosamund Pike did enough to win, but the momentum around Da’Vine Joy Randolph is so strong we can’t pick anyone else in good conscience. She is still the only nominee to show up across all early wins. It’s hers to lose at this point. Rosamund gave Drag Queen-worthy line reads in Saltburn, though, and it’s a shame she won’t be recognized for it.
Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
(Photo by Warner Bros.)
Who will win?
Ryan Gosling
88%
Barbie
(2023)
Who should win?
In truth, Ryan Gosling should win. RDJ (Oppenheimer) or Charles Melton (May December) may give him stiff competition, but a song nomination and the most memorable part of the film outside of America Ferrera’s speech has to count for something with voters.
(Photo by Universal)
Who will win?
Christopher Nolan
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
Who should win?
It’s not even a contest at this point.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Who will win?
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
Who should win?
Good luck arguing anyone on this list is not deserving. There’s Past Lives, Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, and Killers of the Flower Moon, but with seven nominations and a history of spreading things around at HFPA, we are picking this as Poor Things’ best chance to take home hardware this Sunday, especially if Margot Robbie defies our pick to win in Best Actress.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
What will win?
96%
Anatomy of a Fall
(2023)
What should win?
Past Lives is arguably the best film in this bunch, not just by our estimation but also by the Hollywood Foreign Press. The film garnered the most nominations overall with five, but the English mix of the presentation will likely end its chances of winning here despite it being the film’s best chance to win. The Zone of Interest is also a threat, but Anatomy of a Fall has clear momentum and favor with the group.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
(Photo by Sony Pictures)
What will win?
95%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
(2023)
What should win?
This one is truly a coin flip between The Boy and The Heron and the Spider-Man sequel, but we are confident in our pick. Still, if there were any justice in this world, Hayao Miyazaki would be taking home his first Best Animated Prize from the Golden Globes this weekend.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
What will win?
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
What should win?
What is the instrumentation of global atomic destruction? Quite hard to articulate, huh? That was the task given to Ludwig Göransson, and he cleared that high bar with room to spare. A case could be made for both Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse and The Boy and the Heron, but beating out this crop of live-action instrumentation, including our winner, is a hard sell.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Who will win?
“What Was I Made For?” – Billie Eilish
88%
Barbie
(2023)
Who should win?
Barbie bathes in the riches of three Best Song nominations, each spanning the breadth of what the medium can give us — action, comedy, pathos, and dance. Still, Billie’s Grammy-nominated bop is the soul of the film. Sorry, Peaches, you know we looooo-oooo-ve yoooou.
Best Television Series – Drama
Who will win?
97%
Succession: Season 4
(2023)
Who should win?
Watch Episode 3 of The Last of Us and then try to tell us that it is not the best dramatic show on Television. We dare you!
Best Actress – Television Drama
(Photo by MAX/HBO MAX)
Who will win?
Sarah Snook
97%
Succession: Season 4
(2023)
Who should win?
Bella Ramsey. We loved the last season of Succession, but Bella Ramsey is barely out of their teens, and they have given us two characters that will go down in history as the greatest to grace the small screen. Lyanna Mormont, the North, and we will never forget.
Best Actor – Television Drama
(Photo by HBO)
Who will win?
Pedro Pascal
96%
The Last of Us: Season 1
(2023)
Who should win?
The rub of a show like Succession being so stacked is that people often struggle to pick a standout, and one could argue Kieran Culkin’s breakdown at Logan Roy’s funeral won him every prize this year the minute it aired, including this one. Still, we think the Succession folks will split the voting, giving an opening to the internet’s new favorite obsession. No shade to “Yes, chef.” We’re saying, “Yes, Daddy!”
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Who will win?
99%
The Bear: Season 2
(2023)
Who should win?
Jury Duty would be the fan-favorite pick, and it deserves to win. It was a true comedy. It had no script and was still the most talked-about show of the year. Unfortunately, we think the Hollywood Foreign Press is just not done rewarding dramedies.
Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy
(Photo by FX on Hulu)
Who will win?
Ayo Edebiri
99%
The Bear: Season 2
(2023)
Who should win?
Ayo Edebiri made global headlines for her review of Saltburn. Her review. She is the “it girl” of awards season, which does not even compare to what she did in the second season of The Bear. We love Natasha Lyonne’s Poker Face and Elle Fanning is still Great, but Edibir’s Sydney won our — and Carmie’s — heart. You all can fight about it in the comments, but we will ship them as the ultimate true love pairing until our dying breath.
Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy
(Photo by Hulu)
Who will win?
Jeremy Allen White
99%
The Bear: Season 2
(2023)
Who should win?
Coupling the numerous The Bear nominations with a late Iron Claw awards surge? We don’t know if anyone can take it from our shouty chef, but if anyone can, it is his television antithesis, Jason Sudeikis’ Ted Lasso. Sadly, Barry’s last season was not widely seen or appreciated, thus ending Bill Hader’s chances to get a second statue here.
Best Miniseries or Television Film
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=/Gq7zgg0AQSA
Who will win?
98%
Beef: Season 1
(2023)
Who should win?
Beef. Controversy aside, it was one of the most inventive and well-written shows we got this year. This makes the bizarre choice to cast the non-actor David Choe even more puzzling in retrospect, given all the headaches it created.
Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film
(Photo by Prime Video)
Who will win?
Riley Keough
70%
Daisy Jones & the Six: Season 1
(2023)
Who should win?
Many will say it should be an even sweep for Beef in the limited series contests, but we think the Daisy Jones & the Six hive will stand up on this one. When you have Stevie Nicks herself confess she felt this fanfiction retelling of her time with Fleetwood Mac played out parts of her history as vividly as she experienced them, you can’t deny its power.
Best Actor – Miniseries or Television Film
(Photo by Netflix)
Who will win?
Steven Yeun
98%
Beef: Season 1
(2023)
Who should win?
David Oyelowo. We think, unfortunately, not enough of the Hollywood Foreign Press have appreciated what Oyelowo was doing with the very American Western Lawmen: Bass Reeves, but this is one of those shows that we expect to have a killer second season, both with critics and audiences, after more folks discover it.
Best Supporting Actress – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film
(Photo by FX/Hulu)
Who will win?
Meryl Streep
96%
Only Murders in the Building: Season 3
(2023)
Who should win?
Christina Ricci. It is hard to understand the difficulty of what the girls from Yellowjackets are doing with the horror, comedy, and drama of each episode — and Christina Ricci is doing the best of them all. An equal mix of insanity and thoughtful practicality, the tightrope she walks is sheer perfection and nearly impossible to achieve without bordering on ridiculous. But what can you do when you share a category with the LeBron James of acting?
Best Supporting Actor – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film
(Photo by Freevee)
Who will win?
James Marsden
82%
Jury Duty: Season 1
(2023)
Who should win?
James Marden simply doesn’t get the credit he deserves as an actor with indescribable range. Name another actor who can do what he did in Jury Duty, Enchanted, and the X-Men franchise. Considering he suffered through three X-Men movies, he deserves a statue for just that.
Film | Television
The 2023 Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Jo Koy, will air live on NBC on Sunday, January 7, 2023, at 8 p.m. EST/5 p.m. PST.
Thumbnail image by ©Warner Bros. Pictures
Are you as obsessed with awards as we are? Check out our Awards Leaderboard for 2023/24.
On an Apple device? Follow Rotten Tomatoes on Apple News.